Right Wins by Landslide in Paraguay

By Ronald J. Morgan

Paraguay’s long dominant Colorado Party has handed the Paraguayan anti-corruption coalition a devastating defeat.

Paraguayan voters ignored U.S. corruption warnings and sanctions against Colorado Party members and instead, put them in control of the presidency and both houses of congress. If the United States allegations are right, the country  of 7.6 million has fallen under the control of a mafia-like political machine.

Once the official party of the Alfredo Stroessner dictatorship, the Colorado Party reigned for many years virtually unmolested. And after a return to democracy, they only lost the presidency once, in 2008. This year, the voters handed the party almost the power to do anything they want. Only a disagreement between Colorado Party factions (Honor Colorado, Cartes backers and Fuerza Republicana, supporters of outgoing President Mario Abdo Benitez (2018-2023) plus a few independents) is weakening the Colorado hold on the congress.

And the new president, Santiago Peña, finds the old days under Dictator Alfredo Stroessner (1954-1989) to be to his liking. He told Folha do Brasil in an interview that he didn’t approve of the human rights abuses that occurred during the time but he could praise the political agreement that kept Stroessner in power for so many years. “Without having to worry about presidential successions it was possible to design long term policies and maintain them without the insecurity of election politics.” While the comments brought a bit of public outcry, it was not successful in derailing Peña.

During the campaign Peña refused to debate and relied on public events, television interviews and social media efforts on outlets such as twitter and facebook. 1, 2

U.S. Intervenes in Paraguay

Whatever the reason, voters gave Peña the win, with 42.74% of the vote totalling 1,292,079 votes. Efrain Alegre of the left reform coalition known as La Concertacion received 27.8% for a total of 830,842 votes. Rightwing Populist Paraguayo Cubas of the Cruzada Nacional. finished third with 692,663 votes. Another independent leftist, Euclides Acevedo of Movimento Nuevo Republica, received 1.36%, 41,194 votes. A total of 13 political parties participated. 3

In all, out of 4,782, 940 registered voters 3,022, 946 voted for a 63.24 % participation. This was an increase of  1.8% according  to Wikipedia. Participation is mandatory for Paraguayan voters.

The Colorado Opposition, particularly the left, also lost in the senate and the chamber of deputies.  The Colorado party won a majority in both houses of congress with 23 senators and 48 deputies. The Colorado Party also won 15 governorships out of a total of 17.

The left parties were reduced dramatically in the congress. The left Frente Guasu won just one seat in the senate, a loss of five seats. Former President Fernando Lugo (2008-2012) failed to be reelected to a senate seat. According to Ultima Hora, the core left party also lost some famous politicians such as  Sixto Pereira, Hugo Richer, Miguel “Kencho” Rodríguez and Carlos Filizzola. 4, 5,

Opposition parties reshaping the senate lineup include Partido Liberal, PLRA/Concertacion Nacional 12 seats, a loss of one. Cruzada Nacional five seats, an increase of four seats, Patria Querida, one seat, a loss of two.  Alianza Ecuentro Nacional, PEN, two seats, an increase of 2. Frente Guasu one, a loss of five. Yo Creo Party, one seat. a first run. 6

The opposition parties have formed a block named the Alianza para la Patria. This includes members of the Partido Liberal Radical Auténtico (PLRA)/ Concertacion Nacional, Alianza Encuentro Nacional, Yo Creo, Frente Guasu and Patria Querida for a total of 17 seats.. The alliance did not win the support of the Cruzada Nacional of Payo Cubas which controls five senate seats.

The vote in the Chamber of Deputies produced many new first-time deputy winners — 58 out of a total of 80 deputies. The Colorado party won complete control over the Chamber of Deputies with 48 seats — this gives the Colorados the power to hold and cancel quorum sessions. The opposition controls 32 seats. The PLRA/Concertacion Nacional  won 23 seats, a new alliance. Cruzada Nacional, four seats, up three seats. Encuentro Nacional has two seats, no change. Patria Querida, one seat, a loss  of one. Yo Creo Party 2 seats, a new party. 

The lopsided results favoring the Colorado Party brought suspicions of some type of election fraud. The Left PLRA/Concertacion candidate Efrain Alegre called for a partial manual vote recount and a independent international audit. He also called for an opening of a vote count information envelope called “Sobre 4”. This envelope contains a copy of every vote cast at a particular vote table. The Superior Justice Election Tribunal has refused to open the envelope contending that it violates the elections law. The opposition followed up their damand with a legal challenge to the Paraguayan supreme court. 7, 7a, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 12a,

The Organization of American States (OAS) Election Observer Team saw things differently and  issued a report May 2, that there was no need to doubt the elections results  “Given the wide gaps between the results obtained by the candidates in the race and the fact that the OAS/EOM did not note any serious incidents, interruptions in the processing of sensitive electoral
information, or serious deficiencies in the chain of custody of electoral material, the Mission wishes to
state that there is no reason to doubt the results announced by the electoral authority.” 

Third Place Candidate Paraguayo Cubas lead protests against the Paraguayan Elections Department. Cubas contended that he actually won the election. The protests, which ran from May 2 to 16 led to 200 arrests. Cubas was also arrested. Since then he has been held on charges of disturbing the peace and has been denied bail.13

 Çoncertacion Candidate Alegre also joined in the protests. Some protesters contended they were trying ot force the Election Tribunal to do a good job at checking for possible fraud. A complaint of fraud was also filed with the Parlarsur parliament of the regioinal trade group Mercosur. 14, 15.

While Cubas emerged as a new right wing populist force, Alegre, the left loser came under attack from members of the PLRA to resign as head of the party due to his poor showing. This was his third try at he presidency. The collapse of the left is leaving a gap in the political balance.16, 17.

The victory of the Colorado party is seen as creating a likely pro business, neoliberal majority which will not support reforms of a number of pressing social issues such as health, education and old age pensions or they will have a neoliberal bent. Unfair justice and continued corruption are also a concern The winners are also expected to side with large landowners in disputes with peasants in the countryside. Human rights issues also could be given less attention.

Many former members of the Horacio Cartes Presidencial team are resurfacing in the Peña government. These appointments are giving rise to accusations that the government will be a continuation of the Cartes period 2013-2018.

MORE COMING…Appointments, new cabinet.

SOURCE:

1. Santi elogia a la dictadura de Stroessner https://www.abc.com.py/politica/2023/03/01/santi-pena-ahora-elogia-a-la-dictadura-de-stroessner-ante-medio-brasileno/tps://

2. Fotos, Dicatadura de Stroessner https://www.abc.com.py/politica/2023/03/01/dictadura-de-stroessner-fotos-con-las-que-se-ironiza-el-acuerdo-politico-al-que-se-referia-pena/

3. Paraguayan General Election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Paraguayan_general_election

 4.Liderazgos quebradas y figuras emergentes http://www.ultimahora.com/liderazgos-quebrados-y-figuras-emergentes-las-claves-del-nuevo-escenario-politico-n3060437.html

5.ANR Consolida con 15 gobernadores- 23 senadores y 48 Diputados https://www.lanacion.com.py/politica/2023/05/01/mayoria-colorada-anr-se-consolida-con-15-gobernadores-23-senadores-y-48-diputados/

6. 58 nuevos diputados y otros 22 electos seran proclamados hoy https://www.abc.com.py/politica/2023/05/31/unos-58-nuevos-diputados-y-otros-22-reelectos-seran-proclamados-hoy

7. Denucia Parlasur que hubo fraude electoral https://www.ultimahora.com/canese-denuncia-parlasur-que-hubo-fraude-electoral-n3062199

7a Prelimary Report of the OAS Electoral Observation Mission to Paraguay http://www.oas.org/fpdb/press/Preliminary-Report-of-the-OAS-Electoral-Observation-Mission-to-Paraguay-2023.pdf

8. Los ocho sobres del proceso electoral que contienen y cuales son sus destinos https://www.ultimahora.com/los-ocho-sobres-del-proceso-electoral-que-contienen-y-cuales-son-sus-destinos-n3061111

9. Si se abre 4 esta en juego la estabilidad juridica https://www.ultimahora.com/si-se-abre-4-esta-juego-la-estabilidad-juridica-advierte-vice-del-tsje-n3061574

10. Lorgran ir despejando calles de protesta frente tsje  https://www.ultimahora.com/logran-ir-despejando-calles-protestas-frente-al-tsje-n3063096

11. Tribunal ratifica prision preventiva a Payo Cubas https://www.ultimahora.com/tribunal-ratifica-prision-preventiva-payo-cubas-n3063413

12. Manifestantes detenidos se exponen una pena mas de cinco años https://www.ultimahora.com/manifestantes-detenidos-se-exponen-una-pena-mas-cinco-anos-carcel-n3061645

12a Tribunal ratifica prision preventiva Payo Cubas https://www.ultimahora.com/tribunal-ratifica-prision-preventiva-payo-cubas-n3063413

13. Abogados de la oposicion solicitan medida cautelar de de urgencia para apertura de sobre 4..https://www.abc.com.py/politica/2023/05/17/abogados-de-la-oposicion-solicitan-medida-cautelar-de-urgencia-para-apertura-de-sobre-n-4/

14. Payo Cubas denucia fraude electoral https://www.abc.com.py/politica/2023/05/02/payo-cubas-denuncia-fraude-electoral-en-vivo-simpatizantes-se-manifiestan-en-todo-el-pais/

15. TSJE devolvera 2000 maquinas de votacion ya reitera que no son auditables https://www.ultimahora.com/tsje-devolvera-2000-maquinas-votacion-y-reitera-que-no-son-auditables-n3060749

16. PLRA crisis tras las elecciones https://www.abc.com.py/tv/en-detalles/2023/05/28/plra-crisis-tras-las-elecciones/

17. Quien es Cubas el candidato sopresa en paraguay que consolida en el tercer puesto https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2023/04/30/quien-es-cubas-el-candidato-sorpresa-en-paraguay-que-se-consolida-en-el-tercer-puesto/

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. Intervenes in Paraguay

By Ronald J. Morgan

This year’s presidential election in Paraguay, the eighth since the country returned to democracy in 1989, is anything but a normal exercise in democracy.

The vote is being carried out against a backdrop of  U.S. intervention in the country’s political and justice system. The United States has unleashed national security sanctions against a former president and a vice president. And, it has categorized as corrupt a number of lesser officials, all with the aim of counteracting what the United States sees as an extremely corrupt state which threatens the country’s democracy and has a negative impact on U.S. security in the region.

The get tough approach with highly corrupt countries has in the past involved things such as impunity commissions. This  latest move adds sanctions usually reserved for America’s enemies such as Russia and Iran.

The sanctions are having an effect on the perception of the Colorado Party which has had a number of individuals singled out for corrupt practices

The bulk of America’s effort is directed at squashing allegedly corrupt power centered in former President Horacio Cartes (2015-2018). Also at issue, is whether this year’s Colorado Party Candidate Santiago Peña is going to be independent of Cartes. 1

Despite the American sanctions, Cartes has not been charged with a crime in Paraguay and has successfully been elected to the presidency of the Colorador Party. 1a

Joining in the crusade to beat back extensive corruption in the country is a leftist coaltion formed in 2022.  The National Concertation for a New Paraguay is the primary opposition group.

The broad based coalition of Left, Centrist and Center Right parties has vowed to stop corruption and repair damaged done to government institutions.

In an unprecedented move the coaltion received the full support of the National Peasant Federation of Paraguay known as the FNC. The group is one of the more influential social organizations, representing a portion of about 300,000 peasant farmers. 2

In the past, the FNC had a policy of never backing a particular candidate for president. But this year was different. The group gave its full political support to the Concdetacion Candidate Efrain Alegre. The FNC expressed support for the Alegre development program. They also expressed concern about possible fraud in the April 30 vote and vowed to defend the legitimacy of the election with their member base.With the race running razor close in the polls the organization may have to make good on its promise.

Paraguay has had a long history of voter fraud, Marcial Gomez, Assistant Secretary General of the FNC, said. “Unfortuantely the popular will has always been sold. There is always fraud.”

Fraud such as vote buying, interference with vote tallies (actas) and buying off of elections officials on site at the polls are cited as concerns by Gomez,

Also mobalizing in support of the coalition are a major group of Nongovernmental Organizations which have called for an end to mafia-type control over the government. The group of 23 organizations issued a joint statement which emphasized that “The current politcal context is being threatened by a open interventions by organized crime in the elections and in the overall political system. This is worrisome because it implies a direct harm to the quality of representation in the country”. 3

But despite such concerns, it is still not going to be easy to uproot the current political power structure centered in  Paraguay’s dominant Colorado Party.

Even though the sanctions interfered with the Colorado Party access to political financing for the election the Colorados (Late in the election a loan was obtained) are still showing strength. They are known for their national organizational structure and their ability to deliver on patronage jobs. The Colorado Party candidate Santiago Peña bowed out of all debates and has relied on party recognition. 3a,3b.

As the April 30, election heads into the final stretch the polls show a tight race with Colorado Presidential Candidate Peña facing off against Concertation challenger Efrain Alegre.

Colorado Party Candidate Peña, 44, has served as Paraguayan Finance Minister 2015-2017, and as a member of the board of directors of  the Central Bank 2012-2014. He also has served as an analyst at the International Monetery Fund.

Ironically, Peña is running against the political party that he belonged to for the most time. Peña was a member of the Partido Radical Authentico (PLRA) from 1996-2016. In 2016, he switched to the Colorado Party. Peña ran for the Colorado Party candidacy in 2017, but lost out to current president Mario Abdo Benitez, 51.

Peña’s rise to prominence is closely linked to Horacio Cartes, president 2013-2018. Cartes, 66, headed the Honor section of the Colorado Party in 2010. The Unitred States has issued sanctions against Cartes, a wealthy businessman, for participating in acts of corruption. The sanctions have hit most of the former president’s companies. Cartes joint ventures have also been affected.

But Cartes, nicknamed “El Patron” is still powerful as he is serving as the president of the Colorado Party. Peña’s running mate is Pedro Alliana, 49. He served as head of the Colorado Party from 2015 to 2023 and has been a congressional deputy serving as head of the chamber of deputies from 2019-2022. Peña’s campaign slogan is Vamos a Estar Mejor/We’re going to be better off. 5a

Peña has been questioned as to how much loyalty he would show to Cartes.  Both Cartes and Peña are from the same Honor Section of the Colorado Party. Peña served as Finance Minister under Cartes and served on the board of directors of the Cartes-owned Banco BASA. His opponents charge that he will represent a continution of Cartes in power.

While The Concertacion Nacional Para un Nuevo Paraguay headed by Alegre is in second place in the polls the left is not completely united.

Left hold out candidates include. Payo Cubas, 61, of the Cruzada Nacional, a former senator and deputy. Another holdout on the left, is Euclides Acevedo,72, Partido Encuentro Nacional. Acevedo is a former senator and deputy who has served as Foreign Minister 2021-2022, Interior Minister 2019-2020, Minister of Industry and Comerce 1999-2003. Despite efforts by former leftist president Fernando Lugo the left was not able to achieve full unity. How much this will affect the election outcome is yet to be known.

The Concertation nominated Efrain Alegre, 60, as their candidate Dec. 18, 2023. Alegre will be running for president for the third time. He finished second behind Mario Abdo Benitez in 2018. Alegre has the support of former President Lugo.The campaign theme of the Concertation is Change is Arriving/El Cambio Ya Llega. He has pledged to prosecute corrupt politicians and to extradite Cartes to the United States if appropriate. 4,5

Alegre also has advocated reforming a deteriorated health system. He has also proposed ending long standing relations with Taiwan and opening ties to China. This is mostly to facilitate Paraguay exports.

Alegre served as public works minister under President Fernando Lugo from 2008 to 2011. Lugo was impeached by a rightwing opposition after serving four years of his five-year term (2008-2012). Alegre was elected senator for the term 2008-2015. Before that he was head of the Chamber of Deputies from 1998 to 2003. He has been a Chamber of Deputies member from 1998 to 2008.

Alegre has served as president of the PLRA party since 2016. The PLRA has the only party apparatus with the  organization base capable of competing with the Colorado Party nation wide. His running mate is Soledad Nuñez, 40. Nuñez is a civil engineer who served in the Cartes administration as Minister of Housing and Habitat from 2014 to 2018. She is the head of the Center-Right Movimiento Despertar/Wakeup Movement.

In 2008, a similar coalition, the Frente Guasu, defeated the Colorado party by 234.365 votes electing former Bishop Fernando Lugo. This was the first defeat of the Colorado Party after holding power for 61 years. After a brief interlude by President Federico Franco, A PLRA member, 2012-2013.  the Colorado Party regained power under Cartes and later Abdo. This has kept them in power for ten years. A win this year,would allow for a 15-year continuous run.

Following the overthrow of the Alfredo Stroessner dictatorshp (1954-1989)  the country returned to democratic rule. But it has suffered problems with corruption, machine party politics and justice system problems throughout much of the period.

With the election of Cartes the United States began to show increasing concern about the deterioration in the government’s various ministries, congress and the justice system. Organized crime also has allegedly put down roots in Paraguay. Paraguay serves as a cocaine transit country to Brazil and Argentina. 6,7

On July 22, 2022 the U.S. Treasury Department announced that it had made a security finding of “significantly corrupt” against Cartes. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that “Former President Cartes obstructed a major international investigation into transnational crime in order to protect himself and his criminal associates from potential prosecution and political damage. These actions undermined the stability of Paraguay’s democratic institutions by contributing to public perception of corruption and impunity within the office of the Paraguayan President.”

Blinken also charged that Cartes had engaged in terrorism. “Additionally, these actions enabled and perpetuated Cartes’s recently documented involvement with foreign terrorist organizations and other U.S.-designated entities which undermines the security of the United States against transnational crime and terrorism and threatens regional stability.

On January 26, 2023, the Treasury Department announced that it was imposing a series of sanctions on Cartes assets and his businesses.

Sanctions were also imposed on current Vice President Hugo Velázquez. “He also engaged in practices which interfered with legal processes to protect himself and criminal associates from criminal investigations,  including by bribing and threatening those who could expose his criminal activity.”  the statement said. The U.S. announcment led Velazquez to drop his ambitions for the presidential candidacy.

The United States is able to impose sanctions on individuals through legislation known as the Global Magnistky Act. This act allows the president of the United States to order a freezing of assets of persons involved in a pattern of human rights abuse or extensive corruption. The law seizes the person’s assets in the United States. The sanctions can prohibit other businesses from doing business with sanctioned companies.

In January, the U.S. Treasury described Cartes as a man who consistently has used corruption as part of his effort to gain influence over Paraguayan political institutions. “Cartes engaged in corruption before, during, and after his term as President of Paraguay. Cartes’ political career was founded on and continues to rely on corrupt means for success.” the department said in a news release.

The U.S. Treasury Deparmtent singled out a large number of actions by Cartes which took place over his political career. These include, paying money to influence the Colorado Party to admit him in 2009. As a result the party lifted a ten-year membership requirement which allowed a run at the party presidential nomination. In 2013, Cartes allegedly paid party members $10,000 each to support his candidacy for president.

While president, Cartes routinely made cash payments to legislators for support. In 2017, Cartes attempted to push through a consitutional change allowing reelection with a cash offers of $1 million. The reelection change effort lead to a major outbreak of violence in the country.

After leaving office Cartes attempted to influence politics with cash payments to legislators. His strongest supporters received as much as $50,000 a month. Money laundering evidence also surfaced with regard to Horacio Cartes, a Treasury Department news release said.

Previously, a Paraguayan congressional investigation into money laundering had turned the focus of attention on activities in the area of money laundering.8

The Treasury Department also accused Cartes and Velasquez of associating with members of the terrorist group Hezbollah. According to the U.S. report the pair attended parties with Hezbollah where bribes were paid and business projects were discussed.

The latest officials added to the US corruption list were court clerk Vicente Ferreira and Edgar Melgarejo — the former director of the Paraguayan Civil Aviation Authority — as well as Jorge Bogarín, a member of a panel that disciplines judges and prosecutors.

The designations came after the US State Department “received credible information” that Melgarejo “misappropriated public funds for personal gain during his tenure”, according to US Ambassador to Paraguay Marc Ostfield. He also said there was evidence Bogarín and Ferreira “interfered in judicial proceedings for their own personal benefit”.

Another alleged avenue of corruption in recent times has also begun to crumble. Sandra Quinones, Paraguay Fiscal General, has resigned and is under investigation for blocking various criminal investigations. Quinones was considered a loyal supporter of Cartes.

Also. a much criticized supreme court justice, Antonio Fretes, resigned from the supreme court.

With the arrival of a new Fiscal General and the replacement of Fretes on the supreme court there is thought to be a chance of some clean up of justice corruption.

More is coming on Paraguay election…. 

SOURCES

1. Cartes aprovecha acto ANR reaparecer junto a Santiago Peña https://www.ultimahora.com/cartes-aprovecha-acto-anr-reaparecer-junto-santiago-pena-n3059440.html

1a. Pedro Ovelar sanciones tienen el objectivo de cazar a horacio cartes https://www.abc.com.py/politica/2023/03/31/pedro-ovelar-sanciones-tienen-el-objetivo-de-cazar-a-horacio-cartes-y-destruir-al-partido-colorado/

2. Marcha Campesina Sentara Postura a Favor un Candidato https://www.ultimahora.com/marcha-campesina-sentara-primera-vez-postura-favor-un-candidato-n3055421.html

3.Twenty-three Civil Society Organizations Call for End to Mafia like Politics https://www.semillas.org.py/2023/03/22/oscs-buscan-frenar-influencia-del-crimen-organizado-en-politica/

3a.Que va a pasar si gana peña o alegre https://www.ultimahora.com/que-va-pasar-si-gana-pena-o-alegre-los-posibles-escenarios-politicos-n3058162.html

3b. Santiago Peña quien es el candidato a presidente por el Partido Colorado https://www.abc.com.py/politica/2023/04/24/santiago-pena-quien-es-el-candidato-a-presidente-por-el-partido-colorado/

4. Concertacion el acuerdo de oposicion https://elsurti.com/oligarquia/reportaje/2022/07/04/que-es-la-concertacion-el-acuerdo-de-oposicion-que-disputara-el-poder-en-2023-2/

5. Efrain Alegre y su tenaz intento llegar a la presidencia con un discuros antimafia https://www.ultimahora.com/efrain-alegre-y-su-tenaz-intento-llegar-la-presidencia-un-discurso-antimafia-n3058140.html

6. EEUU Impone sanciones financieras vice presidente paraguay hugo velazquez expresidnete cartes https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2023/01/26/ee-uu-impone-sanciones-financieras-vicepresidente-paraguay-hugo-velazquez-expresidente-horacio-cartes-orix/..

7. US accuses top paraguay politicas of corruption spurring probe https://www.aljazera.com/news/2023/3/24/us-accuses-top-paraguay-politicians-of-corruption-spurring-prob

8.  Cartes movio us 30 millones con eeuu en ultima 8 años https://www.abc.com.py/politica/2023/01/30/cartes-movio-us-30-millones-con-eeuu-en-los-ultimos-8-anos/

Lula Wins in Brazil but Bolsonaro Still a Force

By Ronald J. Morgan

Listen to this story at https://medium.com/@morganworld98/lula-wins-in-brazil-but-bolsonaro-still-a-force-80b328fdae5b

Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva has won the right to run Brazil for the next four years edging out Rightist Jair Bolsonaro. Lula’s Workers Party coalition with the Brazilian Socialists received 50.9% of the votes 60,345,999 while Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party won 49.1% of the votes totalling 58,206,354. 1,1a

Brazil has the largest economy in Latin America. But the nation of  215 million has shown signs of hunger and increasing poverty. Somc 58% of Brazilians have some food insecurity problems. Poverty is up from ten years ago and may afflict 20 million Brazilians. Brazil has the world’s seventh highest crime rate. 2,3,4 

Lula, 77, will face a strong oppostion in congress where Bolsonaro has achieved a majority, however, and the Right may be able to stop a number of his initiatives. This ability would, no doubt, include attempts to prosecute Bolsonaro for any alleged wrongdoing related to the Covid 19 crisis or other matters such as destruction of the Amazon. So far, Bolsonaro has beat back prosecution attempts. Support for the Donald Trump of South America leaves a polarized standoff for the next four years. 5,6,6a

Lula, a former Metal Workers union leader, was previously president for two terms from 2003 to 2010. He was able to reduce poverty during that period which included a strong economic expansion. This time however, such results may be difficult.  His vicepresident will be Gerald Alkmin.69, of the Brazilian Socialist Party. Alkmin has served as Sao Paulo governor.

In his acceptance speech, Lula pledged to resume economic growth, and to share it with all sectors of the population. Lula also vowed to rule for all Brazilians in a fair manner. Lula also said he would improve protection of the Amazon. 7,8

In his victory speech Lula described himself as a man who had come back from the dead. Lula was not in the 2018 presidential race because of a conviction for corruption involving the Petrobras oil company. But after 580 days in prison Lula was let out after a judge declared the convicition invalid.

During the election campaign Lula announced he would not be running for a second term in 2026.

Bolsonaro, 67, who often expressed admiration for Brazil’s military dictatorship (1964-1985), was unable to win reelection after four years of firery boastful, rightwing rhetoric and what some have charged arrogant neglect of the Covid-19 crisis. Covid-19 took 688,000 Brazilian lives. Neglect of the enviromental concerns in the Amazon, and rising violence and hunger were also criticized. Rightist invasions of indigenous lands and increasing murders of indigenous persons were also of concern. 8a.

Bolsonaro’s support came from agricultural land owners, big busioness, evangelicals and some military and police groups. He is a former army captain. Bolsonaro had raised concerns that he would disavow the elections if Lula won. His anti-leftist rhetoric, which included attacks on Argentina and Chile’s leftist leaders also lead to a tense and polarized situation in the country.

Bolsonaro attempted to reach out to the poor duirng the election campaign by hiking welfare payments fifty percent. The welfare rolls were also expanded 50%. The Bolsonaro government spending during the election campaign has raised legal questions. 9,10

Bolsonaro has vowed to follow the constitutional provisions for handing over power to Lula on January 1, But he still has not personally admitted defeat at the polls. The atmosphere following the Bolsonaro defeat has included national rightwing protests called Putsch protests which have occurred in 23 states and in the capital Brasilia. The protests, usually in front of military bases are calling for the military to anull the elections and take power. These protests show the power of the Bolsonaro populist effect in the country.

Bolsonaro´s Partido Liberal also filed a challenge to the election calling for the Brazilian Election Tribunal to declare the vote fraudulent. This brought an angry and immediate reaction from the Tribunal.

The Tribunal said the complaint was filed in “bad faith” and violated democratic norms. And, it slapped a $3.5 million fine on the former president’s Partido Liberal. A previous check by the Brazilian military found no evidence of fraud.11, 11a

Bolsonaro was able to remain a political force in the country as a result of his strong first round showing which left him legislative and governorship power.12,13

In the first round Oct. 2, election Brazilians failed to give Luiz Inacio da Silva the votes he needed to win out right. The narrow victory was less than than predicted by Brazilian election polls. More importantly, the 123.7 million votes gave Bolsonaro a 23-seat boost in the lower house of Brazil’s congress raising the right’s representation to 99 seats in the 513 member Chamber of Deputies. Together with rightwing allied parties the right controls more than half the seats in the chamber of deputies. Lula won 68 deputies according to a report by Reuters news agency.

Four famous Bolsonaro supporters were elected to the 81- member senate. Overall. the Bolsonaros Partido Liberal and right allies won  13 senate seats. Lula took nine seats of the 27 seats up for election.. The famous Bolsonaro supporter additions are Sergio Moro, former justice minister and the prosecutor in the Lavo Jato bribery scandal, Damres Alves former human rights minister, Tereza Cristina, former agricultural minister and Marcos Pontes, former Science and Techonology Minister.

Bolsonaro supporters also dethroned the left in Sao Paulo. Tarcisio Freitas defeated former presidential candidate for the PT Party, Fernando Haddad. In Rio de Janeiro  Bolsonaro Partido Liberal candidate Claudio Castro was reelected. In all, Bolsonaro candidates won nine governorships in the first round. Lula took five governorships. Some 15 of 27 governorships were up for a vote. Some 12 states went to a second round.

Lula won the first round with 48.4% of the votes to Bolsonaro’s 43.20%. Abstentionism was 29,95%. Overall the numer of votes for each candidate set a record however. Lula’s Brasil de Esperanza Coalition received 57.259.504 votes up 82.7%  Bolsonaro’s Por el Bien de Brasil Coalition received 51, 072,345 votes, up 3.6%.

In the first round, Lula won in 14 of the 26 states and one federal disctril of Brazil. In the second round, Lula took 13 states and Bolsonaro 14 states. Lula’s strongest support was in the North and Northeast of Brazil but he also took the wealthy city of Sao Paulo. Voter support for Bolsonaro was strongest in Central and Southern Brazil.

SOURCES

1. Brazil-election-how-lula-won-the-runoff-from-sao-paulo-to-the-north-easthttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/01/brazil-election-how-lula-won-the-runoff-from-sao-paulo-to-the-north-east

2.Poverty-reaches-a-record-of-almost-20-million-in-brazilian-major-citieshttps://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/business/2022/08/poverty-reaches-a-record-of-almost-20-million-in-brazilian-major-cities.shtml#:~:text=Poverty%2C%20record%20of%2020%20million,08%2F2022%20%2D%20Business%20%2D%20Folha

3. Grocery-bills-soar-hungry-brazilians-may-seal-bolsonaros-fatehttps://www.reuters.com/world/americas/grocery-bills-soar-hungry-brazilians-may-seal-bolsonaros-fate-2022-09-29/

4.violence-is-on-the-rise-in-brazil/https://peoplesdispatch.org/2022/08/08/violence-is-on-the-rise-in-brazil/

5 Bolsonarism-has-already-won-in-brazil-even-if-bolsonaro-loses https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/10/17/

6. Outrage-brazil-jair-bolsonaro-avoids-five-charges-related-to-covid-responsehttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/27/outrage-brazil-jair-bolsonaro-avoids-five-charges-related-to-covid-responseç

6a.Environmental Damage in Brazil https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03038-3

7.Lula-da-silva-subraya-que-no-hay-dos-brasiles-y-promete-gobernar-para-todos/https://www.eitb.eus/es/noticias/internacional/detalle/9001595/lula-da-silva-subraya-que-no-hay-dos-brasiles-y-promete-gobernar-para-todos/

8.His-first-speech-lula-says-fighting-poverty-his-mission.https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/politica/noticia/2022-10/his-first-speech-lula-says-fighting-poverty-his-mission.

8a.Hidden-genocide-death-of-indigenous-man-in-brazil-spurs-outcryhttps://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/1/hidden-genocide-death-of-indigenous-man-in-brazil-spurs-outcry

9.Bolsonaros-cash-injection-gains-traction-with-poor-brazilians-ahead-vote-  https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bolsonaros-cash-injection-gains-traction-with-poor-brazilians-ahead-vote-2022-10-25/

10. Jair-bolsonaro-struggles-to-sway-brazils-poor-voters-with-welfare-boost  https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/jair-bolsonaro-struggles-to-sway-brazils-poor-voters-with-welfare-boost

11.Brazil court rejects Bolsonaro party complaint over vote https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-electoral-court-rejects-bolsonaro-election-challenge-2022-11-23/

11a.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/10/brazil-military-finds-no-evidence-of-election-dashing-hopes-of-bolsonaro-supporters

12.Bolsonaro-eligi nueve-gobernadores-y-lula-cinco-en-brasilhttps://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/brasil-elecciones_bolsonaro-eligi%C3%B3-nueve-gobernadores-y-lula-cinco-en-brasil/47948636

13. Asi-han-sido-resultados-elecciones-brasil-estados-grandes-ciudades://www.eldebate.com/internacional/20221003/asi-han-sido-resultados-elecciones-brasil-estados-grandes-ciudades_63622.html

 

 

 

Chileans Vote Down New Constitution

By Ronald J. Morgan

Nearly three years after the October 2019, uprising demanding social change rocked Chile the forces for reform have suffered a setback. Rejection of the new constitution Sept. 4, has, at least, temporarily sidelined a big part of the planned reform effort.

The defeat came even though voters had approved the creation of a new constitution by a large margin on October 25, 2020. some  78.27% voted for approval. But after rhe drawing up of the constitution with a 155 person convention support began to wane. While the constitution contained many social reforms of a cutting edge nature. affecting abortion, the environment and social benefits, presidential reelection and changes to the makeup of congress. the document began to draw criticism from moderates as too radical. The expansion of Indigenous rights to allow autonomy also was focussed on as radical. Former President Ricardo Lagos, 2000-2006, came out against the document giving moderates reason to vote down the new document. Just before the vote, Boric admitted the constitution needed more work and vowed congress would enact more reforms. A number of fake news charges also circulated against the new document. These involved mostly abortion and indigenous rights reforms.  1,2.3.4,5.5a

On Sept. 4, some 61.9% of the voters voted No while 38.1% voted in favor. Still the rewrite of laws for the country of 19 million may be given another effort shortly. The current constitution, which is considered neoliberal. was adopted in 1980 under the Dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet,1973-1990.

President Gabriel Boric, 36, was sworn in as Chile’s youngest president in  March.  A former student leader, Boric was swept into office as part of the La Rebelion post protest reform movememt. Boric pledged following the rejection of the constitution to seek new paths to rewrite another more acceptable document. Protesters in the street have called for a second constitutional convention But a congressional reform of the 1980 constitution could also be possible.

Three Chile Elections Set Stage for Nov. 21 Presidential Vote

Boric faces a devided congress. His popularity has also slipped recently as a result of spriraling crime violence and increased inflation. The economy is also slowing down noticeably. The inability to bring an indigenous conflict in Southern Chile under control also has hurt the image of Boric as a leftist reformer. Analysts are calling the defeat of the constitutional rewrite a serious blow to Boric and a stunning defeat for the Approval/ Apruebo forces. After beating back the right in last years presidential election, the right now has resucitated somewhat with the victory of the Rechazo campaign against the constitution.

Chile’s Left Landslide Buries Kast Challenge

The day following the consitutional covention Boric announced the reshuffling of his cabinet saying that the defeat was “one of the more difficult moments I’ve had to live through.” Boric’s popularity has plummeted to 33% according to pollster CADEM. 6

The changes in the cabinet included removal of Izia Siches as interior minister. She was replaced by Carolina Toha. Toha once served as mayor of Santiago and as a cabinet minister under President Michelle Bachelet. Siches was the first woman interior miinister. She had risen to prominence as a young leader of the Chilean Medical College.

Boric also removed Sergio Jackson as cabinet chief and put him in charge of Social Development replacing Jeanette Vega. Vega resigned earlier.  Ana Lya Uriarte replaced Jackson as cabinet chief. Boric also replaced Maria Begonña Yarza with Ximena Aguilera at the Health Ministry. Claudio Huepe was replaced by Diego Pardo at Energy, Flavio Salazar was replaed by Sylvia Diaz as Science Minister. The  changes are being seen as a move toward the political center.

It is thought that the Right will also have more influence over any new constitutional reform effort.Chile’s Partido Republicano has shown the most enthusiasm for doing in all post October 2019 protest proposals.  Former Presidential Candidate Alexander Kast called the Rechazo victory a “tremendous defeat for Gabriel Boric ” Kast’s Republicanos were the first to officially reject the constitution when it was finished this May. The Partido Republicano also has become the first opposition to Boric in the Chilean congress.

While the left has filled the streets with protesters demanding a continuation to the process of change other obscure right wing forces have launched threats.  In recent days, members of the Chilean congress have received threatening e-mails seeking to derail any constituional rewrite. 7,7a,8

Listen to this story on Medium https://medium.com/@morganworld98/roads-to-resistance-3717883ed777

sources

1. Efectos Politicos triunfo rechazo plebiscito  https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/2022/09/11/1072486/efectos-politica-triunfo-rechazo-plebiscito.html

2. Encuestga en Chile 67 porcentajez quiere una nuvena constitucion https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2022/09/12/encuesta-en-chile-67-quiere-una-nueva-constitucion-y-la-imagen-de-boric-cae-a-su-pisio-mas-bajo/

3. Boric, La pinerizacion del presidente https://www.ex-ante.cl/la-pinerizacion-de-gabriel-boric-por-jorge-schaulsohn/

4 Chile’s Boric attempts relaunch honeymoon ends abruptly https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chiles-boric-attempts-relaunch-honeymoon-ends-abruptly-84591899

5. Ricardo Lagos declaracion sobre una nueva constitucion. https://www.ricardolagos.org/2022/07/05/declaracion-sobre-una-nueva-constitucion/

5a.Plebiscito en chile la arda lucha contra las noticias falsas.https://www.dw.com/es/plebiscito-en-chile-la-ardua-lucha-contra-las-noticias-falsas/a-62960599

6,. Chile’s Boric Reshuffles cabinet https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/6/chiles-boric-reshuffles-cabinet-after-new-constitution-rejected

6. Ricardo Lagos declaracion sobre una nueva constitucion. https://www.ricardolagos.org/2022/07/05/declaracion-sobre-una-nueva-constitucion/

7. Chile Rejects New Constitution, New York Times analysis https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/04/world/americas/chile-constitution-no

7a. Kast tras la debate delback el apruebo Esta derrota es tambien su derrota https://gaceta.es/iberosfera/kast-tras-la-debacle-del-apruebo-boric-esta-derrota-tambien-es-su-derrota-20220905-0639/

8. Razones para el Rechazo de la constitucion https://www.nuso.org/articulo/Chile-plebiscito-constitucion/

9. Anti-constitucion amanezas contra congreso https://www.telesurtv.net/news/diputados-chilenos-denuncian-amenazas-20220911-0013.html

 

7

Petro’s New Agenda for Colombia

By Ronald J. Morgan

Colombia’s new president Gustavo Petro has announced an ambitious agenda that aims to roll back neoliberal and militaristic policies of the past. He also plans to reactiviate the peace agreement signed in 2016. A particular emphasis will be put on reestablishing the rural developmet provisions in Part 1 of the agreement. 1

Petro plans to introduce an ambitious tax reform which will raise 11,5 billion U.S. more funds for social programs and require more tax payments by the rich. Petro’s predecessor Ivan Duque had proposed a neoliberal tax plan which lead to nation-wide protests.

Partly because of deaths during the protests the new president has announced plans to disband a controversial anti riot unit known as ESMAD. Petro also plans a different approach to the long standing drug war backed by the United States. Petro has ordered the ending of glifosate spraying on drug crops. He also has proposed a different approach to drug trafficker prosecutions and extradition to the United States.

Petro has decided to deactivate tensions with Venezuela and move toward normal relations. Petro also has formed a team to reach out to the remaining Colombian insurgents such as the ELN, FARC dissidents and rightwing paramilitaries.

Petro also will confront Colombia’s major economic interests by reducing the country’s emphasis on petroleum extraction and mining. This will nclude ending fracking oil extraction experiments. Recently, antifracking activiists have been threatened. Petro also has been shot at since taking office. Colombias free trade agreement with the U.S. could also be upended.

Petro Puts Colombia Left in Power

Petro plans to improve health care, increase access to free education and combat poverty. Improvements in pension system coverage also are being planned.

So far, a wide range of political forces are backing Petro in congress and this should allow some moving foreward of his agenda. According to a Telesur report Petro has achieved a majority of 63 out of 108 seats in the senate and 114 out of 186 seats in the chamber of deputies.

LISTEN TO THIS https://medium.com/@morganworld98/petros-new-agenda-for-colombia-d6922278e52f

SOURCES:

Cambios clave que introducira el nuevo presidente de Colombia https://www.bnamericas.com/es/noticias/los-cambios-clave-que-introducira-el-nuevo-presidente-de-colombia

Colombias new president Petro propose ambitious Tax Reform https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/8/9/colombias-new-president-petro-proposes-ambitious-tax-reforms

Gustavo Petro to have Majority in the Colombian Congress https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Gustavo-Petro-To-Have-Majority-in-the-Colombian-Chambers-20220720-0008.html

Se instala el congreso de Colombia con mayoría reunidas en favor del nuevo gobierno Gustavo Petro https://www.aa.com.tr/es/mundo/se-instala-el-congreso-de-colombia-con-mayor%C3%ADas-reunidas-a-favor-del-nuevo-gobierno-de-gustavo-petro/2641951

Colombia tax the rich plan https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/26/colombia-tax-the-rich-plan-poverty-gustavo-petro

Colombian Peace Accords Analysed https://wordpress.com/post/roadstoresistance.wordpress.com/5253

Petro Puts Colombia Left in Power

 

 By Ronald J. Morgan

Gustavo Petro achieved victory in the June 19, second- round election for a history-making win over Colombia´s traditional right leaning political forces. Petro, 62, will have four years to establish a lasting peace around the 2016 peace agreement and to bring more social justice and progress to more than 40% of Colombians languishing in poverty.

The Petro victory also brought the first black vice president to office, Francia Marquez, 40. The two victories are likely to shake up activities at the usually stodgy Casa Nariño. Petro a former M-19 insurgent who made peace in the early 1990s rose to offices in congress and the senate. He also became mayor of Bogota. This was his third run at the presidency. In the second round, Petro’s left Historic Pact for Colombia received 11.28 1013 votes for 50.44%. His second round opponent was a anti-corruption mayor who ran largely as a social media candidate. Rodolfo Hernandez, 77, of the League of Anti-corruption Governors coalition earned 10,580,412 votes for 47.31% of the vote. It was a tight win and perhaps the usually enemies on the right didn’t try hard enough in the second round campaign.

It was in the May 29 first-round that Petro proved that the traditional political elites, especially those backed by Rightwing Former President Alvaro Uribe were lacking support this year.  The pro-Uribe right wing conventional party coalition Team for Colombia  headed by Candidate Frederico “Fico” Gutierrez was soundly defeated. 

Voters backed anti-corruption outsider Hernandez for second place making the June 19 second round race a choice between a Colombian left candidate and an outsider irreverant reformer. Hernandez is the former mayor of Bucaramanga.

After several tough years with mounting poverty and increasing violence levels the electorate turned out to vote in record numbers. Some 54.9% of the 21,418.631 eligible voters participated in the elections.

Petro’s Pacto Historico Left coalition took the first round by a wide margin.  Some 8,527.768 votes for 40.30%. 

Far behind. in second place was Rodolfo Hernandez, 77, of the League of Anti- Corruption Governors, who received 5,953,209 for 28.15% .

The big loser of the night was Federico Gutierrez of the rightwing Team for Colombian coalition. Gutierrez who was backed by the traditional powerful parties and Alvaro Uribe’s right Centro Democratico, received 5,058, 010 votes for 23.97%.

Sergio Farjardo of the center left, Hope Center Coalition also was left far behind at the end of voting day. Fajardo, a well- known former governor of Antioquia department received 855,268 votes for 4.18%. Fajardo backed Petro in the second round and has since been appointed education secretary.

The dissatisfaction fueling the leftist surge was very evident in the initial primary elections Petro received 4,495,831 and Francia Marquez of the Alternative Polo Party recieved 795,215 votes. Frederico Gutierrez of the Right Creemos Coaliton received a much lower 2,161,686  Sergio Fajardo, a well- known former governor and center left candidate for the Hope Center Coalition received 723,475 votes.

Petro will be sworn in as president Aug. 7. He will attempt to lead the nation’s 50.9 million Colombians toward a more peaceful and inclusive nation. 

(Watch for an update soon

1..

2.

https://countercurrents.org/2021/05/the-roots-of-colombias-crisis-2021/

 

Costa Rica: Neoliberal Chaves Faces AusterityTensions

By Ronald J. Morgan

Costa Rica is under stress as a new president enters office this year. Controversy over austerity measures attached to a $1.8 billion IMF loan are likely to dominate the political scene in coming months.

Costa Ricans elected neoliberal Rodrigo Chaves, 60, as their president on April 3. Chaves won as an outsider with a background as a World Bank economist. He defeated Costa Rica’s most famous political family in the second round. Chaves won 53.9% of the vote to 47.1% of the vote for Jose Maria Figueres Olsen, 67. Figueres Olsen was also a conservative. Figueres Olsen is the son of Jose Figueres Ferrer, (1906-1990), father of the modern Costa Rican political system. Chaves will be sworn in May 8.1

Chaves came on the scene suddenly, after serving six months as finance minister in the Center-left President Carlos Quesada Alvarado (2018-2022) administration.

Chaves said in a press conference the day after he was elected that he would seek to improve the current IMF agreement. The accord seeks to tackle Costa Rica’s debt crisis at a time when economic conditions have been adverse. The left Frente Amplio party said in a communique that Chaves had made secret commitments to the nation’s powerful business sector. Chaves has come out against tax increases but has vowed to fight poverty. 2.

The IMF agreement seeks to reduce government spending by reducing public sector employment. Costa Ricas’s public debt has reached 70% of GDP. The Costa Rican congress passed a new pulblic employment law this March. 2a

Corruption scandals in the public works area and drug trafficking infiltration of Costa Rica’s local governments are also affecting Costa Rica’s progressive image. 3, 4, 4a

Chaves’ opponent Figueres Olsen, 67, won the first round vote Feb. 6. Figueres previously served as president from 1994 to 1998. At the time he implemneted many of Costa Rica’s major neoliberal reforms. Figueres’ Partido Liberacion Nacional won 27.29% of the vote from a crowded field of 25 candidates. The PLN party also took the most seats in the Costa Rican congress with 18 seats out of 57 seats. The new president will have to negotiate with congress to pass major laws or undertake new financing.

In a surprise win, former Finance Minister Rodrigo Chaves made it into the second round with 14.9% of the vote. Chaves competed under a new party Progreso Social Democratico. The party won 9 seats in congress.. He has had a long career at the World Bank and is also considered a neoliberal.

Righwing Evangelical candidate Fabricio Alvarado of the Partido Nueva Republica finished third with 14.90%.of the vote. His party received seven seats in congress. Alvarado finished second in the 2018 election. He lead opposition to legalizing same sex marriage. About 20% of Costa Ricans are evangelicals.

Finishing fourth in the race was anti-corruption candidate and former head of the Judicial Investigation Organization office Lineth Saborio, 61. Saborio of the, Partido Unidad Scoial Cristiano received 12.40%. Saborio also served as vicepresident under the President Abel Pacheco administration (2002-2006). Polls had predicted that Saborio would make it to the second round Her party won six seats in congress.

The two second-round winners had some skeletons rattling in the midst of the elections race. Figueres has a shadow cast over him by an alleged 900,000 bribe scandal involving the French Alcatel communications company. The case was eventually shelved but the accusations are still flying about the involvement in a Alcatel bribery effort.

Figueres has also received criticism for a questionable loan to a cement company. His actions involving the closing of a corruption-racked Banco Anglo also have been recirculating.

Chaves is haunted by a sexual harassment scandal that lead to a World Bank internal investigation. Chaves has denied the charges.

Turnout in the first round was the lowest in decades at only 60% of the eligible 3.5 million voters. This trend continued in the second round when 57% voted

Carlos Alvarado Quesada 42, the current left center  president, ended up embroiled in protracted disputes with unions and anti-neoliberal forces over plans to reform the state and impose tax and austerity measures. The presidnet is finishing his term with a low 38% popularity. In addition to the economic program, he dedicated a large amount of his program effort toward lowering high carbon emissions and promoting use of green energy and electricity.

The economic situation stands out as perilous for the countrys populatión. Unemployment has reached 14.4% while poverty has hit 23% in 2021. A key issue is an expanding debt crisis which has developed over the last decade. Inequality is also gaining ground. And there’s a sense of unfair bias toward the rich.  Costa Rica is highly dependent on tourism and export of medical instruments and tax exempt free trade zone factories. The Covid 29 crisis has taken 8,357 lives in the nation of 5.09 million.

Nevertheless, a recent trend toward economic recovery in 2021 and early 2022 is expected to help the new president. Fitch Ratings Agency reported a 7.6% growth in the economy in 2021 after a 4.1% drop in 2020. Fitch predicts 3.7% growth in 2022. The fiscal deficit is also expected to gradually improve if the IMF reforms bare fruit. 4b.

The key question is whether the public will stomach planned spending cuts. The fiscal deficit is now put at 8% of GDP. The government’s effort to cut public employment has been met with stiff resistance and protests going back to 2018 when a new tax law abolished an outmoded sales tax and replaced it with a VAT tax and reworked the income tax law.

The left charges tax evasion has not been attacked by the government. It has also warned of the consequences of privatizations and  university budget cuts. Overall there is sense that time is running out for policies that increase social pressure on the poor. The voters have shown their displeasure with the current president’s PAC party. 5, 5a, 6,7.

The dispute over economics hurt the president’s popularity and the official PAC party candidate, Economist Welmer Ramos, 61, who finished far back in the first round with  0.66%. of the vote.

SOURCES

1. Costa-rica-ex-finance-minister-chaves-wins-presidential-vote/a-https://www.dw.com/en/costa-rica-ex-finance-minister-chaves-wins-presidential-vote/a-61346966

2.Costa-rica-president-elect-chaves-wants-to-improve-deal-with-imf https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220404-costa-rica-president-elect-chaves-wants-to-improve-deal-with-imf

2a. March 8 2022 costa rica aprueba una reforms al empleo publico https://www.efe.com/efe/america/economia/costa-rica-aprueba-una-reforma-al-empleo-publico-plan-clave-en-un-acuerdo-con-el-fmi/20000011-4755609

3. Costa Rica a paradise for the few after first round of electioms https://www.coha.org/costa-rica-a-paradise-for-the-few-after-first-round-of-elections/

4.Costa Rica election: Will a newcomer beat an ex-president?https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-60938598

4a. Detenida en costa rica una banda narco que lavaba dinero en licitaciones publicos https://www.efe.com/efe/america/politica/detenida-en-costa-rica-una-banda-narco-que-lavaba-dinero-licitaciones-publicas/20000035-4671916

4b.Fitch revises costa rica outlook to stable https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-revises-costa-rica-outlook-to-stable-affirms-idrs-at-b-11-03-2022

5, El-frente-amplio-ante-el-resultado-de-la-segunda-ronda-electoral/https://www.frenteamplio.org/

5a. Costa Rica enacts tax reform https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2018-2438-costa-rica-enacts-tax-reform

6.Costa Rica: una democracia al borde del abismo https://nacla.org/news/2022/01/12/costa-rica-elecciones-2022

7. Costa Rica: 4 desafíos de Rodrigo Chaves como presidente para convertir de nuevo a su país en ejemplo de bienestar social https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-60980076

Argentina refinances IMF accord; Left dissidents have doubts

 

By Ronald J. Morgan

After two years of intense negotiations Argentina has achieved and approved a refinancing of its $44 billion debt with the International Monetery Fund. The deal avoids heavy repayments  of $19 billion due this year, and $20 billion next year. The amounts would have forced a default on the debt.

Instead, the agreement will allow an immediate injection of $9.7 billion.

 The  agreement, which replaces a 2018, $50 billion IMF financing signed by President Mauricio Macri. provides four years grace — until 2026 — on debt repayments. But it also calls for a number of economic fiscal changes that require the government to cut back on spending,  provide realistic exchange rates and pay real interest rates. Central Bank reserves will hopefully increase as a result. A hot button issue could be a requirement to reduce energy subsidies. 1 1a

The agreement, signed March 17, has detractors on the left. Kirchner wing of the official Frente de Todos party. Massive demonstrations against the agreement also have been occurring in the streets. Opponents charge the new deal will lead to austerity and stop economic recovery.2

Infobae news reported a recent opinion poll by the firm Fixer found the public reducing support for President Alberto Fernandez with overall support dropping from 27% to 24%. Support among official party supporters fell 10% from 57% to 47%. Argentines are showing a lot of concern over inflation which has hit 52.3% annually. Years of recession and the Covid 19 crisis have pushed poverty to 40%. 3.

But, no doubt, reaching the agreement and achieving approval by the Argentine congress is a milestone in the Alberto Fernandez government. The deal is expected to calm financial instability. But the IMF admits there are substantial risks to complying with the accord. Meeting the spending cuts are expected to be the toughest in a heavily politicized run up to the 2023 elections. 3a

The Argentina chamber of deputies March 11, passed the deal with 202 votes in favor, 37 votes opposing and 12 abstentions. On March 17 the senate passed the agreement with 56 votes in favor, 13 against and three abstentions. 

Opposition came from former president Nestor Kirchner´s son Maximo Kirchner. He lead a critique of the agreement and he backed it up with a resignation as Official Party Leader in the Chamber of Deputies. Thirty-five of the 41 official party deputies supported Kirchner. 4

In a letter announcing their objections to the IMF deal and the organization’s return to monitoring the Argentine economy, the left group stressed the agreement was going to lead to an unwanted adjustment program, that the IMF was going to become the co-administrator of the nation, and that the program of the IMF also would not solve the economic problems of the country.

The group also called for revising the IMF plan in the future. They noted that the overall debt plan would have to be refinanced again in 2025. The statement also said the IMF plan would not attack inflation properly. The group also criticized the Mauricio Macri 2018 agreement and supported legal action against it. And it added, that most of the loan money fled the country in capital flight.

Vice presidnet Cristina Kirchner, mother of Maximo, also spoke out against the historical role the IMF has played in Argentina. After protesters attacked her office, March 11, Kirchner remarked that her husband, president Kirchner had disliked the role of the IMF sayng: “They always acted as promoter and vehicle of policies that provoked poverty and pain in the Argentine nation.” 5, 5a

With the deal signed, Cristina Kirchner is proposing major push to return capital flight dollars to the country 6,7

The divisions in the Albero Fernandez cabinet leaves the current government in a continued state of political crisis. The dispute between Kirchner left forces and pro Fernandez Peronist supporters has revitalized political ambitions on the right.

The Argentine voters have been putting the administration on notice since last year’s Nov. 14 2021 midterm elections that they can quickly take away their support if conditions are not to their liking. The Frente de Todos lost control of the senate putting it in a weakened position to rule without right support. 8

On  March 9, Fernandez announced that he was running  for reelection in 2023. There is some speculation that Cristina Kirchner will break with Fernandez and that there will be a serperate Kirchner faction candidate. Cristina remains more popular than Alberto.

The left is in a precarious position according to a March Management and Fit poll which found that 54% of voters would vote for the opposition. 9,10,11,12

Opposition Candidates for the rightwing Juntos Para el Cambio and other political groupings are already politicking heavily to position themselves for the next elections.Top contenders so far include Horacio Rodríguez Larreta,56, mayor of Buenos Aires.  Gerardo Morales,62, governor of Jujuy province , Facundo Manes, 52, Congressman, former president Mauricio Macri, 63, President 2015-2019, Javier Milei, 51, congressman, a far right newcomer,  Patricia Bullrich, 65, ex-minnister of Argentine Security. María Eugenia Vidal, 48, former governor of Buenos Aires Province and currently a member of the chamber of deputies.

The big unknown facing the nation is how much econmic growth is going to occur before the next eletion In 2020 the economy shrank 10.5%. In 2021 the economy bounced back 10%. But this year and next is expected to be tepid with 2.5% in 2022, and 2.3% in 2023 according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD.  13 ,14

SOURCES

 1. Argentinas Senate Approves IMF deal https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/18/argentinas-senate-approves-imf-deal-avoiding-defaulthttps://en.mercopress.com/2022/03/09/argentine-president-launches-2023-candidacy.-ties-broken-with-cfk

1a. Argentina-imf-exec-board-approves-extended-arrangement-https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/03/25/pr2289-argentina-imf-exec-board-approves-extended-arrangement-concludes-2022-article-iv-consultation#:~:text=Washington%2C%20DC%3A%20The%20Executive%20Board,the%202022%20Article%20IV%20Consultation.

2.Thousands protest argentina’s debt deal https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220209-thousands-protest-argentina-s-debt-deal-with-imf

3. Segun una encuerta el gobiern Alberto Fernandez y Cristina Kichner ataviesa el peor momento https://www.infobae.com/politica/2022/04/04/segun-una-encuesta-el-gobierno-de-alberto-fernandez-y-cristina-kirchner-atraviesa-el-peor-momento-desde-que-asumio-en-materia-de-expectativas/

3a. Argentina-s-imf-deal-gets-lukewarm-reviews-https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/argentina-s-imf-deal-gets-lukewarm-reviews-68750055

4. Duro comunicado de los diputados oficialistas que le dieran la espalda al acuerdo FMI https://www.cronista.com/economia-politica/el-duro-comunicado-de-los-diputados-oficialistas-que-le-dieron-la-espalda-al-acuerdo-con-el-fmi-el-fondo-va-a-ser-un-co-administrador/

5. Crisitina Fernandez congreso, FMI https://www.telam.com.ar/notas/202203/586008-cristina-fernandez-congreso-fmi.html

5a. Los-planes-de-alberto-fernandez-para-cerrar-la-grieta-con-cristina-kirchner/https://www.cronista.com/economia-politica/los-planes-de-alberto-fernandez-para-cerrar-la-grieta-con-cristina-kirchner/

6. Senado el Kirchnerism apura el debate de blanqueo para pagar la deuda https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/senado-el-kirchnerismo-apura-el-debate-del-blanqueo-para-pagar-la-deuda-con-el-fmi-nid0504202

7, El monto que se fugo es idenitco a la deuda https://www.pagina12.com.ar/413730-el-monto-que-se-fugo-es-identico-a-la-deuda

8. Argentine midterms could make president a lame duck https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-11-14/argentine-midterms-could-make-president-a-lame-duck

9- Segun una encuesta mas del 50 porcentaje de los argentinos votaria al oposicion https://www.perfil.com/noticias/politica/segun-una-encuesta-mas-del-50-de-los-argentinos-votaria-a-la-oposicion-en-2023.phtml

10. Encuesta midio provincia 2023 sorprendieron kirchner, mauricio macri, javier milei https://www.clarin.com/politica/encuesta-midio-provincia-2023-sorprendieron-cristina-kirchner-mauricio-macri-javier-milei_0_MPzEo9Hjtm.html

11.Encuesta 2023, larreta, milei,, cristina en un triple empate presidencial https://www.noticiasurbanas.com.ar/noticias/encuesta-2023-larreta-milei-y-cristina-en-un-triple-empate-presidencial/

12. Nueva-encuesta-fuertes-alertas-gobierno-economia-expectativas https://www.clarin.com/politica/nueva-encuesta-fuertes-alertas-gobierno-economia-expectativas-inflacion-fmi_0_4pX5H5eSY6.12.

13.Argentina-economic-outlook-first-quarter-2022/https://www.bbvaresearch.com/en/publicaciones/argentina-economic-outlook-first-quarter-2022/

14.Argentina economic snapshot https://www.oecd.org/economy/argentina-economic-snapshot/

 

 

 

 

Demonstrators march in front of the National Congress as the Senate debates an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in Buenos Aires, Argentina, March 17, 202

 

 

Chile Left Takes Office With Ambitious Agenda

By Ronald J. Morgan

Gabriel Boric, 36, has begun his four-year term March 11. Top priority for the first months will be a tax reform package and an effort to negotiate an end to the Mapuche indigenous conflict in southern Aruacania. 1.2

The new tax plan will aim at raising tax revenues which will be used to fund expanded social programs aimed at reaching out to Chile’.s aged and poor. Overall the target increase is 5% of GDP. Increasing personal taxes, mining taxes and green taxes will be the priority. Corporate tax rates will be left unchanged.3,4,5,5a

Later in the term, Boric plans to produce a new mixed pension system to replace the old AFP private pension system maligned as not paying out high enough pensions.

One of Boric’s first actions was to sign into law a progressive green law known as the Escazu treaty. This United Natons law was first unveiled in 2018. While President Michelle Bachelet worked on the creation of the law the project was rejected by the Piñera government.   The regional Latin America agreement increases the right to environmental information and justice. It also improves legal protection for ecological human rights defenders. 6, 6a 

Boric’s campaign manager and new interior minister Izkia Siches, 36, will head up the Mapuche peace effort. The government has lifted a state of emergency in the region known as the macrozona sur which includes Araucania. Siches was surrounded and shots fired in the air when her delegation visited  the Mapuche city of Temucuicu. Siches was attempting to visit with Marcelo Catrillanca, the father of Mapuche Camilo Catrillanca who was killed by the Carabineros police in 2018. 7

Boric has also moved to unblock an amnesty law that was being blocked by Piñera forces from moving ahead in congress. The law if passed, witll affect some 2,500 persons being held since the October 2019 revolt. Government reparations for the injured in the protest are also in the offing. 8,9

The most recent report by Amnesty Internatinal criticizes the Piñera admistration for the lack of prosecutions against high ranking national police commanders for their roles in the violence that occurred against demonstrators in 2019. This includes 8,000 injuries including 400 eye injuries. 10

A former university protest leader and congressman, Boric has been elected to implement reforms envisioned following 2019 street protests. Nevertheless, Boric has shown moderation in putting together his government plan and choosing his cabinet. Analysts see his new government as having compromised and opted for a moderate approach designed to ease fears of radical actions against the country’s wealthy sectors.

Two cabinet posts went to members of the more moderate Concertation Left which ran the country for nearly 30 years following the Augusto Pinochet dictatorship (1973-1980). This group was disdained by the 2019 uprising protesters as produicng little change for the better. But during the second round presidential election campaign support from the Concertation, expecially former President Michelle Bachelet, became crucial. 11

The Boric compromise includes Defense Minister Maya Fernandez Allende,50, grandaughter of  President Salvador Allende. Fernandez is a member of the Partido Socialista, a Concertation party, that Boric admitted into his government coalition.

Another moderate pick was Finance Minister Mario Marcel, 61, an independent, Marcel has been Central Bank President from 2016-2022. The Marcel pick drew fire form Communist Party leader and primary election presidential candidate Daniel Jadue. Jadue, a member of the president’s coaltion, noted that Marcel had just finished serving in the right Sebastian Piñera government 2018-2022) as central bank director and could not be considered a leftist.

Jadue has also criticized the governments opposition to a fifth pension takeout for Chileans when the left has backed the last four withdrawals. Jadue has also criticized recent favorable comments regarding the Carabineros national police which he says needs to reformed before it can receive any praise. 12

Boric picked a young left cabinet for the remaining posts. The youngest president in Chilean history also has a majority of woman in his cabinet. The offical spokesman of the government is Communist Party member Camila Vallejo, 33. Handling relations with congress will be Giorgio Jackson, 35. Both persons have been student activist leaders during protests lead by Boric a decade ago.

Boric takes over the government after two years of Covid-19 deaths and economic disruption. Chile, a country of 19.12 million has suffered 55.750 deaths April 6.. By the end of 2021 the Chilean economy began a strong recovery following the lifting of restrictions and widespread vaccination campaign. Fiscal pump priming, pension takeouts, a rise in commodity prices and strong consumer spending spurred a 12% growth in 2021, This made up for the growth lost in 2020 when the economy suffered negative 6% growth. In 2022. growth is expected to slow to 2.7%. 13,14

Nevertheless, there is still concern about lasting damage to the middle class from the downturn. The war in the Ukraine is expected to exacerbate inflation and lead to a rise in food prices.

Chile holds one of the highest per capita incomes in Latina America (Although it fell to $12,993 dollars in 2020 and is estimated to have recovered to $16,799 in 2021). This is behind Uruguay at $21,608 in 2020.

Chile, referred to as the Jaguar State, is often considered an economic overachiever. Nevertheless, it is cursed by a gigantic level of inequality that is threatening the social fabric. Boric has promised to set the stage for an attack on the problem. A report by Diario Izquierda notes that 50% of the adult population receives only 10% of total income while 20% recieve 60%.

Also aimed at attacking this imbalance is a new constitutional covention which is expected to produce a new document by July. The finished product will be voted on by the general public in September.

While Boric handed rightwing challenger Jose Antonio Kast, 56. a decisive defeat in the second round presidential vote Dec. 19,  winning 55.87% of the vote to Kast’s 44.13%, he has substantial rightwing opposition in the senate and chamber of deputies. The rightwing coalitions won control of 50% of the 50 member senate while in the chamber of deputies the right forces control 68 of 155 deputies. Some 53 seats went to the pro Piñera coalition party Podemos and 15 to the Frente Social Critiano coalition of Kast.

Chile’s Left Landslide Buries Kast Challenge

The leftist Apruebo Dignidad coalition and the more moderate Concertation coalition won 74 seats in the chamber of deputies. This division in the congress will require tough negotions to pass a numbr of top priority left initiatives.15,16

After a tense period following the 2019 uprising and the onset of the Covid crisis Sebastinn Pinera 72, left office in March with a mere 15% support according to Data Influye, and 24% according to Cadem polling. The billionaire president could face future prosecution over Police and military abuses during the protest. He also has been accused of wrong doing in what.is being called the Pandora Papers scandal. Piñera, for his part, said he might run for president for a third time in four years. 17

Piñera has beeen crtical of the possible content of the upcoming new constitution and seems likely to play a role in oppositon to its passage in a popular vote. Piñera said as he was about to leave office that “Fundamental things to this country are being weakened.”  18

During his inaugeration day speech Boric referred to his administration and the that of ill-fated leftist President Salvador Allende in the Sixties. “We are opening the great avenues where man and woman are passing free to build a better society.”

SOURCES

1, Tres mensajes destacadors de su primer discurso https://elcomercio.pe/mundo/latinoamerica/gabriel-boric-nuevo-presidente-de-chile-3-mensajes-destacados-de-su-primer-discurso-desde-el-palacio-de-la-moneda-cambio-de-mando-chile-2022-presidente-de-chile-sebastian-pinera-izquierda-feminista-millennial-chi-noticia/

2. Gabriel Boric cita a allende para cerar primer discurso https://elcomercio.pe/mundo/latinoamerica/gabriel-boric-cita-a-allende-para-cerrar-primer-discurso-comprometido-y-muy-personal-cambio-de-mando-chile-2022-presidente-de-chile-sebastian-pinera-izquierda-feminista-millennial-chi-noticia/

3. Politica de economia en cinco claves, entrevista Marcel https://www.df.cl/noticias/economia-y-politica/macro/marcel-en-cinco-claves-las-definiciones-del-ministro-de-hacienda-en-su/2022-03-17/112423.html/

4. To succeed in chile Boric has to reform taxation https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/2/12/to-succeed-in-chile-boric-has-to-reform-taxation

5.El Chile de Gabriel Boric reforms structurales mas poder a los ministros y politicas de genero https://elpais.com/internacional/2022-03-10/el-chile-de-gabriel-boric-reformas-estructurales-mas-poder-a-los-ministros-y-politicas-de-genero.html

5a. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/21/chile-president-elect-boric-unveils-women-majority-cabine

6. To succeed in chile boric has to reform taxation https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/2/12/to-succeed-in-chile-boric-has-to-reform-taxation

6a.The Escazu Agreement https://www.universal-rights.org/contemporary-and-emerging-human-rights-issues/the-escazu-agreement-a-landmark-regional-treaty-for-environmental-defenders/

7.Fin del excepcion macrozona sur https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/2022/03/26/1056140/monsalve-fin-excepcion-macrozona-sur.html

8.Jackson por Indulto https://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/2022/03/22/1055649/jackson-por-indulto.html

9. Chile el gobierno boric apura el proyecto amnistia presos el estallido https://www.ambito.com/mundo/chile/el-gobierno-boric-apura-el-proyecto-amnistia-presos-el-estallido-n5398601

10. Amnistia Internacional resalta el legado sombrio de Piñera en materia de derechos humanos https://www.laizquierdadiario.cl/Amnistia-Internacional-resalta-el-legado-sombrio-de-Pinera-en-materia-de-Derechos-Humanos

11. Chile president elect boric unvels woman majority cabinet https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/21/chile-president-elect-boric-unveils-women-majority-cabine

12. Daniel Jadue y mas criticas al gobierno .https://www.eldesconcierto.cl/nacional/2022/03/24/daniel-jadue-y-mas-criticas-al-gobierno-de-boric-lo-relaciono-con-la-concertacion.html

13.Daniel Jadue critica Gabriel Boric sobre presos del estallido https://www.24horas.cl/politica/daniel-jadue-critica-gabriel-boric-presos-del-estallido-social-4866776

14. Overview Economico de Chile https://santandertrade.com/en/portal/analyse-markets/chile/economic-political-outline

15. La derecha alcanza mayor representaciona en le senado chileno desde el regreso de la democracia https://elpais.com/internacional/2021-11-22/la-derecha-alcanza-la-mayor-representacion-en-el-senado-chileno-desde-el-regreso-de-la-democracia.html

16. Parlamentarias Derecha mantiene presencia en diputados y gana la mitad del senado https://www.laizquierdadiario.cl/Parlamentarias-Derecha-mantiene-presencia-en-diputados-y-gana-la-mitad-del-senado-Apruebo-Dignidad

17.Chile’s Unpopular outgoing president delivers solitary farewell https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/2/chile-unpopular-outgoing-president-delivers-solitary-farewell

18.Presidente Piñera y redaccion de nueva constitucion https://www.elmostrador.cl/dia/2022/03/07/presidente-pinera-y-redaccion-de-nueva-constitucion-se-estan-debilitando-cosas-fundamentales-para-chile/

Castillo Survives Rightwing Onslaught for Now

By Ronald J. Morgan

Peru’s President has made it past 2021 after a period of severe instability and challenge.

Pedro Castillo, elected July 28, beat back an impeachment effort in December which allowed him to enter the new year. But right wing opposition, disastisfied leftists and a critical press have Castillo under pressure almost on a daily basis.

December 7, congress voted down an impeachment effort with 76 congress members voting against the motion and 46 voting in favor. Four congress members abstained. For the impreachment to have succeeded there was need for 52 votes. 1. 

The 43 votes favoring ouster of the president came from three right-wing parties: The Fuerza Popular party of the Keiko Fujimori ticket and the right wing Renovacion Popular and the right Avanza Pais parties.Three individual votes were gained from the Podemos Peru party and the Alianza Para el Progresso party. but overall they voted against the measure.

Peru Left Edges into Power Amidst Resistance

Supporting the president were his Peru Libre party, Juntos por el Peru left party and the more centrist Accion, Popular Party, Somos Peru and Partido Morado.

The impreachment effort marked a setback for the Fujimori-lead oppostion. Peruvian prosecutors also declared a Fujimori inspired investigation into fraud during the 2021 presidencial elections as unfounded. Castillo was also able to bring a major mining protest at the Las Bambas copper mine to a successful conclusion. But so far, wins for the left Peru Libre party have been meager. 2.3.4

Peru Left Cabinet Approved But Serious Disputes Continue

With the impeachment effort failed, charges of  improper military promotions and other improper adminstrative procedures are under investigation bv the Peruvian prosecutors office. The allegations include alleged influence trafficking during private meetings at Castillo’s house in Breña. While the president is protected by immunity while serving as president, congress is also attempting to find a way to prosecute Castillo before he leaves the office. This would involve some sort of constitutional change. 5,6.7,8,8a.

As of January, Castillo had a 60% negative approval rating  but the vote not to impeach him seems to have have had a calming effect. Whether Castillo can find some way to regroup and relaunch his reform agenda waits to be seen.

Analysts are predicting another impeachment effort from the rightwing oppostion in the future. Congress is not far behind the president in dissaproval according to the latest IPSOS poll. Congress received a 52% disapproval in January.

 The Castillo adminsitration attempted to reset the cabinet in more center left mode this fall. Before that, a series of cabinet minister resignations had caused an impression of an unstable government. 8b.

Some 10 cabinet ministers left office in the first five months of Castillo administration. On Oct 6, Castillo moved his cabinet more center-left. He replaced Guido Bellido Cabinet chief, who had resigned after disputes over supposed ties to Sendero Luminoso and radical left proposals, with more moderate Mirtha Vasquez a Frente Amplio party member. Castillo also changed six other cabinet members. This briefly relieved tensions with the congress and the financial markets moved upward. The change toward moderate left brought opposition from the official Peru Libre Party which cast 7 votes against confirming the new cabinet.  See New Cabinet Lineup at end of SOURCES. 9.

 A rightwing controlled congress has successfully rejected most of Castillo’s left economic and political reform proposals. The strength of the opposition has held firm to support for a continued neolibleral economic framework and support for Peru’s mining industry.10,11

The rightwing congress, elected last year, is shapping up as a body that threatens to be the real power in Peru.

The congress has attempted to reign in Castillo’s ability to adopt economic and political reforms through passage of a number of constraining bills. 

Congress has voted down efforts to raise mining taxes and impose a tax on the rich. New proposed legislaton is also capable of blocking a referendum on a new constituion. Thjs new bill which passed by 72  votes, January 22,,requires that congress approve any constitutional rewrite before a referendum.12, 13,13a

The offiical Peru Libre party is planning to incorporate a referendum on a new constitution for the upcoming October 7, local and regional elections. This fight will be one of the more important political showdowns coming up this year. Another key issue will be the election by congress of the Constituional Tribunal.14

Congress has also sought to deter influence from bolivia’s Evo Morales and the left MAS party. The international relations commission of congress declared Morales persona non grata. 15

Congress has also passed a bill increaseing the requirements for persons seeking to assume any government job. This effort to control most government activities is expected to affect most new government appointments. Recently the Castillo administration appointed Daniel Salaverry as president of Petroperu. This appointment is being challenged by the right wing congress.16,17,17a

Although the political infighting since July, has caused capital flight of an estimated S15 billion and some talk of a drop off private investment the Peruvian economy is performing fairly well. After a drop of 11.1% in the first year of the Covid-19 crisis in 2020. the economy bounced back 12.2% in 2021 which returned Peru to where it was before the Covid-19 crisis. The economy is expeted to grow 2.3% percent in 2022 according to yahoo.com.18

Peru is facing a renewed surge in Covid 19 cases. this January which will make recovery slower. Overall, human work and hunger problems continue. Peru has suffered the largest per capita death rate in Latin America  with 600 deaths per 100,000 cases. Covid 19 produced a jump in orphaned children. The Lancetts 93,000 children have lost one parent.  In 2020 poverty hit 30%, up 9.9% in one year according to a ABC News Report. To date, Jan. 29, 2921, Peru has suffered 2.72 million Covid19 cases and 204,000 deaths. 19.20,21

SOURCES

1. Pedro-castillo-sobrevive-a-un-intento-de-mocion-de-censura.html https://elpais.com/internacional/2021-12-08/pedro-castillo-sobrevive-a-un-intento-de-mocion-de-censura.html

2. Keiko-fujimori-el-segundo-fraude-del-fujimorismo-sigue-cayendo-fuerza-popular/https://larepublica.pe/politica/2022/01/17/keiko-fujimori-el-segundo-fraude-del-fujimorismo-sigue-cayendo-fuerza-popular/

3.la-fiscalia-peruana-desmiente-el-fraude-electoral-que-denuncio-fujimori-para-impugnar-la-victoria-de-pedro-castillo.https://elpais.com/internacional/2022-01-15/la-fiscalia-peruana-desmiente-el-fraude-electoral-que-denuncio-fujimori-para-impugnar-la-victoria-de-pedro-castillo.html

4. Presidente-castillo-conflicto-las-bambas-se-resolvio-dialogo https://andina.pe/agencia/noticia-presidente-castillo-conflicto-las-bambas-se-resolvio-dialogo-875780.aspx

5.Pedro-castillo-defensoria-del-pueblo-insta-al-presidente-a-explicar-reuniones-con-funcionarios-en-casa-de-brena-walter-gutierrez-mdga/

6,Patricia-chirinos-solicita-a-la-fiscal-de-la-nacion-que-se-investigue-las-reuniones-del-presidente-pedro-castillo https://larepublica.pe/politica/2021/11/29/patricia-chirinos-solicita-a-la-fiscal-de-la-nacion-que-se-investigue-las-reuniones-del-presidente-pedro-castillo

7. Pedro-castillo-declara-por-los-ascensos-irregulares-de-militares/https://www.elmostrador.cl/noticias/mundo/2021/12/28/pedro-castillo-declara-por-los-ascensos-irregulares-de-militares/

8.Fiscalia-de-peru-anuncia-investigacion-a-presidente-castillo-por-presunto-trafico-de-influencias/https://www.elmostrador.cl/dia/2022/01/05/fiscalia-de-peru-anuncia-investigacion-a-presidente-castillo-por-presunto-trafico-de-influencias/

8a.Congreso-buscan-interpretar-la-constitucion-para-que-pedro-castillo-sea-investigado-durante-su-mandato/https://larepublica.pe/politica/2022/01/17/congreso-buscan-interpretar-la-constitucion-para-que-pedro-castillo-sea-investigado-durante-su-mandato/

8b,100-dias-de-errores-y-enmiendas-de-pedro-castillo.https://elpais.com/internacional/2021-11-11/100-dias-de-errores-y-enmiendas-de-pedro-castillo.html

9.Peruvian-president-reshuffles-cabinet-changes-seven-ministers-in-favor-of-gover https://peoplesdispatch.org/2021/10/09/peruvian-president-reshuffles-cabinet-changes-seven-ministers-in-favor-of-gover

10.Congreso-de-peru-rechaza-plan-de-gobierno-para-elevar-impuestos-mineros/https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2021/12/17/congreso-de-peru-rechaza-plan-de-gobierno-para-elevar-impuestos-mineros/

11. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/peru-seeks-to-lift-tax-on-top-earners-capital-gains-and-netflix-1.1673632

12.Congreso-insisten-con-la-ley-que-atenta-contra-el-referendum-patricia-juarez-comision-de-constitucion/https://larepublica.pe/politica/2022/01/18/congreso-insisten-con-la-ley-que-atenta-contra-el-referendum-patricia-juarez-comision-de-constitucion/

13,Congresista-de-peru-libre-propone-referendum-para-decidir-cambio-de-constitucion-en-las-elecciones-regionales-y-municipales-2022-noticia-1381306 https://rpp.pe/politica/congreso/congresista-de-peru-libre-propone-referendum-para-decidir-cambio-de-constitucion-en-las-elecciones-regionales-y-municipales-2022-noticia-1381306

|13a Pleno-ratifica-que-toda-reforma-constitucional-pasa-por-el-congreso-congreso-reforma-constitucional-politica. https://peru21.pe/politica/pleno-ratifica-que-toda-reforma-constitucional-pasa-por-el-congreso-congreso-reforma-constitucional-politica-noticia/

14. Congreso-juristas-internacionales-alertan-poca-transparencia-en-el-concurso-para-el-tribunal-constitucional-comision-especial/,https://larepublica.pe/politica/2022/01/15/congreso-juristas-internacionales-alertan-poca-transparencia-en-el-concurso-para-el-tribunal-constitucional-comision-especial/

15,Evo-morales-es-declarada-persona-no-grata-por-comision-de-relaciones-exteriores-del-congreso-nndc-noticia/.https://gestion.pe/peru/politica/evo-morales-es-declarada-persona-no-grata-por-comision-de-relaciones-exteriores-del-congreso-nndc-noticia/

16.Congreso-aprueba-dictamen-que-establece-requisitos-para-designar-a-funcionarios-y-personal-de-confianza- https://peru21.pe/politica/congreso-aprueba-dictamen-que-establece-requisitos-para-designar-a-funcionarios-y-personal-de-confianza-nndc-noticia/

17,Ministro-de-energia-y-minas-daniel-salaverry-no-ejercera-hasta-recibir-informe-de-contraloria-perupetro-https://peru21.pe/politica/ministro-de-energia-y-minas-daniel-salaverry-no-ejercera-hasta-recibir-informe-de-contraloria-perupetro-nndc-noticia

17a.Politica/daniel-salaverry-pedro-castillo-contraloria-observo-designacion-de-excongresista-en-perupetrohttps://peru21.pe/politica/daniel-salaverry-pedro-castillo-contraloria-observo-designacion-de-excongresista-en-perupetro-noticia/

18. Fuga de capitles, la mayor de los ultimos 50 años https://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/per%C3%BA-econom%C3%ADa_per%C3%BA-sufri%C3%B3-en-2021-la-mayor-fuga-de-capitales-de-los-%C3%BAltimos–50-a%C3%B1os/47203006

19.Hunger-crisis-hits-peru-covid-19-deaths-capita/story?https://abcnews.go.com/International/hunger-crisis-hits-peru-covid-19-deaths-capita/story?id=81648862

20- Covid Orephans in Peru https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-59732686

21. Top Events in Peru 2021https://andina.pe/agencia/noticia-peru-the-biggest-political-stories-of-2021-875461.aspx

Peru Cabinet Updated

Hector Bejar, 86, first Foreign Minister. He resigned over creation of Sendero Luminoso comments  which alleged that Peruvian Naval Intelligence created Sendero Luminoso. The second foreign minister is Oscar Maurtua.74, He is a career diplomat, who served as foreign minister under President Alejandro Toledo. 11

Pedro Franke, 60, economic minister. A Former World Bank executive, he has also served in the Peru Central Bank. He is considered a centrist addition to ensure market stability.

Julio Velarde, 69, Central Bank president staying on to calm the markets. He is praised for maintaining economic stability over the years.

Walter Ayala, 50, Defense Chief. He is a former National Police official fired in 1997 for misconduct. Also a lawyer. Earlier this summer he filed an important legal action stopping congress from  electing members to the Constitutional Tribunal  through improper procedures. The restraining order issued by the  OAS Commission Interamericana de Derechos Humans, CIDH, July 7, calls for a hault to the election process. But congress has continued with plans to replace the judges on the  tribunal.11a

Iber Maravi, 60, Labor and employment minister. Faces possible congressional censure for alleged Sendero activities in Ayacucho during the 1980s. Replaced in Nov. by Betsy Chavez.

Anibal Torres,78, justice and human rights minister. He has been Dean of the Colegio de Abogados de Lima. He has criticized Vladimir Cerron for involving himself in the cabinets activiites. 12

Interior Minister Juan Manuel Carrasco, 44, He is an ex human rights lawyer and organized crime prosecutor. Replaced by Juan Barranzuela July 6, Barranzuela resigns later in October after attending banned Halloween party. He is replaced by  Avenlino Guillen, Nov. 4.

Culture Minister Ciro Galvez. 72, A former presidential candidate who supports recognition of indigenous groups.Replaced by Gisela Ortiz Perea Nov. 4

Ecomomic Development and Social Inclusion Dina Boluarte, 59. She is also Vice President  She is the former head of Well Being for Colegio de Abogados, Lima. She ran unsuccessfully for mayor of Surquillo under the Peru Libre Party in 2020.

Education Minister, Juan Raul Cadillo, 49. He is an award winning professor from Ancash department. Education is expected to be a major focus of the new government. Replaced by  CarlosAlfonso Gallardo, Nov. 4..

Energy and Mines Minister Ivan Godofredo, 60. An expert on investment projects and negotiations of social impacts. Replaced by Eduardo Gonzalez Toro Nov. 4..

Environmental Minister Ruben Ramirez Mateo, 56, He is an environmental lawyer who has worked in the labor department and who has been an adviser to the commission on Andean indigenous and black peoples in the Peruvian congress.

Foreign Trade and Tourism Minister Roberto Sanchez, 52. Congressman for Juntos Para Peru party and  government foreign program expert.

Health Minister, Hernando Cevallos 64. He is a former congressman for the Frente Amplio party and a pediatrition from the city of Piura.

Housing Construction and Sanitation Minister Geiner Alvarez Lopez, 36. He is a civil engineer. Former Regional Director of Transportes y Communicacion.

Production Minister, Yvan Quispe Apaz. 37, He is a former congressman for the Frente Amplio party. Economic engineer. Replaced by Jose Inicio, Nov. 4.

Transportation and Communication Minister Juan Francisco Silva Villegas. He is an education specialist

Water and Agriculture Ministers Victor Raul Maitam 29.. He has been president of the National Agricultural Confederation and secretary of the Agrarian Federation Revolucionaria Tupac Amaru de Cusco, FARTAC.  

Minister Woman and Vulnerable Populations Anahi Durand, 43. Durand is a former sociologist at ClASCO think tank.