By Ronald J. Morgan
No doubt one of Colombia’s most important elections ever is heading into the final stretch.
While a new DATEXCO poll, out on Thursday, showed President Juan Manuel Santos pulling slightly ahead of Oscar Ivan Zuluaga of the Right Centro Democratico — 41.9% for Santos and 37.7% for Zuluaga — the race is still up for grabs.
A new Gallup Poll shows Santos closing the gap but still behind with Zuluaga 48.5% to Santos 47.7%.
Two other polls came out on Friday: Cifras y Conceptos shows Santos ahead 43.4% to 38.5% for Zuluaga.
Ipsos-Napoleon Franco gives Zuluaga the lead with 49% to Santos 41%.
While many see the election as being of utmost importance in setting the future course of the nation it can not be denied that nearly 60% of Colombians did not vote in the first round. Whether those voters will be enticed to the polls on, June 15, or will stay home in even large numbers is being debated.
The left Marcha Patriotica Party said, June 5, in a press statement announcing the formation of the Broad Front for Peace, which will back Santos, that the absenteeism is a symptom of severe crisis in the Colombia electoral and political system.
“A absenteeism that is above 60% of the electoral census and a vote in blank of 6% is a clear example of the structural limitations and the precarious legitimacy of the current Colombian electoral system, which finds itself grounded in clientelism, demagoguery, corruption, fraud, and armed constriction. These practices for the majority of Colombians are twisting the real meaning of politics.”
Marcha Patriotica stressed that only a constitutional convention could address the political reforms needed to ensure configuration of truly democratic institutions that promote and guarantee the participation of all Colombians in the important decisions of the country.”
Nevertheless, Marcha Patriotica is supporting a vote for Santos as a counterweight to Zuluaga. Zuluaga and former President Alvaro Uribe are seen as the main obstacle to achieving peace.
Despite the need to keep the peace process on track, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia signalled their dismay with the two remaining electoral candidates and called for a vote in blank. Rodrigo Londoño, the maximum leader of the FARC said Zuluaga’s first round victory was primarily a sign of the “extraordinary loss of prestige” of the Santos government.
Colombia’s two largest left political parties originally decided not to formally back President Juan Manuel Santos in the second round election. But individual left leaders are stumping for Santos in large numbers. And a rally in Bogotá on Thursday accented Left support for Santos.
Left Polo Democratico Alternativo Candidate Clara Lopez, who finished fourth in the first round voting, seemed to overrule the party’s original game plan Wednesday and threw her support to Santos. She urged all other leftists to vote for him. But she said Polo Democratico would not participate in a future Santos cabinet and planned to function as opposition to any Santos government.
“We have a lot of differences in matters of economic programs, many differences in social matters but we have a profound agreement in that the Havana dialogue process has to be maintained,” Lopez said at the Thursday night demonstrartion, as Santos looked on.
Support from leftists could be the only salvation for Santos since they have a strong presence in the capital where the Zuluaga campaign scored a strong first round victory — 542.459 Bogota votes versus 444.007 in the capital for Santos, according to El Espectador. Both the Polo Democratico Alternativo and the Partido Verde parties left it up to their members to decide individually who to vote for. The move was couched as needed to show respect for those who voted for the two parties.
The Polo Democratico Alternativo Candidate Clara Lopez Obregon garnered 1,958,414 votes 15% of the total cast.
The Partido Verde Party Candidate Enrique Peñalosa received 1,065,142 votes, 8.2% of the total cast.
With those 3,023,556 votes potentially available, Santos has been working to get leftist support through individual endorsements by well-known leftist politicians such as Partido Verde Senator Ivan Cepeda, Antanas Mokus, 2010 Presidential Candidate for the Partido Verde, Piedad Cordoba, head of Partido Marcha Patriotica and Aida Avella, head of Unión Patriótica. They argue that the victory of Zuluaga would return Colombia to a right wing extremism that would make peace unlikely.
Colombia’s unions, which have been hard hit by right wing assassinations, have also move to support Santos.
The first round victory of Zuluaga, the Alvaro Uribe, protegé, who wants a tougher line in the Havana Peace talks with leftist Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces, known as the FARC, has shaken both the peace process and put in doubt the political future of Santos, who was expected to be a prominent figure in ending the 50-year insurgency and promoting economic development during the peace accord period.
A Zuluaga presidency may not only lead to a continuation of the war and increased right-wing paramilitary influence, but also, a hard line stance toward neighboring Venezuela. Zuluaga has condemned Santos for being a Hugo Chavez patsy and for being open to FARC concessions.
Zuluaga, of the Democratic Center Party garnered 3,759,971, 29.25% of the total vote.
Santos, of the Democratic Unity Party, lagged behind with 3,301,815, 25.69% of the total vote.
The loss of support from the Conservative Party early in the election season also came back to haunt Santos. The Pro-Uribe candidate Marta Lucía Ramírez, finished third garnering 1,995,698 votes for 15.52% of the total vote.
The question can be raised whether Santos would have won in the first round if Conservatives had stayed in the Democratic Unity alliance. But this week Santos was able to rip the Conservative party apart by wringing support from 48 Conservative Party congressman and former Conservative President Belisario Betancur.
Legal action has been brought before the Colombian Election commission charging the Conservative congressmen do not have the right to defect to Santos.
Ramirez threw her formal endorsement to Zuluaga. Ramirez won a small modification in the position of the Centro Democratico toward the peace negotiations. Instead of cancelling the talks altogether, Zuluaga said he would continue the talks if the FARC met some tough preconditions. Ramirez also took over as the Zuluaga campaign manager.
Zuluaga sent calculations of what he would do after being elected back to the hard right, however, when he called FARC activites terrorism and not an armed conflict.
In addition to a political blitz in the capital, the Santos campaign is also working to increase turnout in its strong hold support zone on the Caribbean Coast.
Former President Cesar Gaviria, kept up his attacks on the Zuluaga campaign this week charging that the Centro Democratico was receiving unacceptable support from active members of the police and armed forces. The support, he charged, was a result of inaccurate rumors regarding how the military would be treated after the peace accords went into effect. The government ordered internal military social network sites shut down on Wednesday to prevent further political activity.
As a result of complaints by Santos Vice President Candidate German Vargas Lleras, seven policeman and an army captain were removed from their posts for illegal political activities.
Retired military officers, in turn, criticized a recent Santos television spot which asks whether Colombians wish to send their sons into the army. Santos followed up the ad with an announcement that he favored doing away with compulsory military service after the peace accords where signed.
The tight race has brought an increase in televised debates. Santos and Zuluaga debated Thurday night and another debate is scheduled for Monday night.
SOURCES
1. Polo Democrático llama a votar a su militancia con autonomía y a conciencia Jueves, 29 de Mayo de 2014 22:23 http://www.polodemocratico.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=6729:polo-democratico-llama-a-votar-a-su-militancia-con-autonomia-y-a-conciencia&catid=75:noticias&Itemid=66
2. DECLARACIÓN DE LA ALIANZA VERDE SOBRE LA SEGUNDA VUELTA PRESIDENCIAL AlianzaVerde/miércoles, 28 de mayo de 2014 http://www.partidoverde.org.co/SaladePrensa/Noticias/TabId/159/ArtMID/818/ArticleID/3059/DECLARACI211N-DE-LA-ALIANZA-VERDE-SOBRE-LA-SEGUNDA-VUELTA-PRESIDENCIAL.aspx
3. No hay Conflicto sino una amenaza terrorista, La Silla Vacia, 4 de Junio de 2014. http://lasillavacia.com/historia/no-hay-un-conflicto-sino-una-amenaza-terrorista-oscar-ivan-zuluaga-47685
4. Acusan a policías y militares de injerencia en la campaña política, El Espectador, 3 de Junio de 2014.
5. Declaración Pública del Movimiento Político y social Marcha Patriótica sobre la segunda vuelta presidencial, 5 Junio, 2014, http://www.marchapatriotica.org/
6. Siete policías removidos de sus cargos por participación en política. Un capitán activo del Ejército también es investigado disciplinariamente. El Tiempo, 6 de Junio de 2014.
7. Demanda enciende la pelea entre conservadores, Revista Semana, 6 Junio de 2014.
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